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The college football world was wishing for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matches underwhelmed, supplying lots of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went an ideal 4-0 versus the spread, including three relatively non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not appear to believe so. At least in two cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a particularly popular choice with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to total dollars since Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns extends to the futures market too. Remember that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the most significant underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most love from sharp gamblers. The Athletic talked to several bookmakers who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very respected player."
Although respected cash has been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do just that, as public gamblers are overdoing Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
While the Texas game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only game in the area. We talked with numerous bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at a lot of sportsbooks and has actually sneaked up a little to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly divided at most sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The . "I wouldn't be shocked if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, however I presently invite any Boise State cash."
Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd possibility it wanted. Are the Buckeyes ready for revenge?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These groups met back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.
So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic consulted with before the CFP first round had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before respected cash pressed it to the existing line of -2.5. A a little higher majority of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the cash has actually come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some respected cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number right now. The overall has increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the greatest relocation of any of the totals. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp bettors, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and instantly our Ohio wagerers thought we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has been driven up to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had seen substantial buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred turned in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What triggered the line turn? Basically, the wagering action.
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Even though Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars bet), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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